Thursday, May 1, 2008

How Grateful Are We?

This was emailed to me by someone. Allegedly this piece was created by Jay Leno. I don't know if its true, but it doesn't really matter. I thought it spoke the truth and decided to post it on my blog. Here it is, enjoy:

Regardless of our politics, most of us will find something to think about in this powerfully stated perspective by Jay Leno:

'The other day I was reading Newsweek magazine and came across some poll data I found rather hard to believe. It must be true, given the source, right?

The Newsweek poll alleges that 67 percent of Americans are unhappy with the direction the country is headed, and 69 percent of the country is unhappy with the performance of the President. In essence, 2/3's of the citizenry just ain't happy and want a change.

So being the knuckle dragger I am, I started thinking, ''What are we so unhappy about?''
Is it that we have electricity and running water 24 hours a day, 7 days a week?

Is our unhappiness the result of having air conditioning in the summer and heating in the winter?

Could it be that 95.4 percent of these unhappy folks have a job?

Maybe it is the ability to walk into a grocery store at any time, and see more food in moments than Darfur has seen in the last year?

Maybe it is the ability to drive from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean without having to present identification papers as we move through each state?

Or possibly the hundreds of clean and safe motels we would find along the way that can provide temporary shelter?

I guess having thousands of restaurants with varying cuisine from around the world is just not good enough.

Or could it be that when we wreck our car, emergency workers show up and
Provide services to help all, and even send a helicopter to take you to the hospital.

Perhaps you are one of the 70 percent of Americans who own a home. You may be upset with knowing that in the unfortunate case of a fire, a group of trained firefighters will appear in moments and use top notch equipment to extinguish the flames thus saving you, your family and your belongings.

Or if, while at home watching one of your many flat screen TVs, a burglar or prowler intrudes , an officer equipped with a gun and a bullet-proof vest will come to defend you and your family against attack or loss.

This all in the backdrop of a neighborhood free of bombs or militias raping and pillaging the residents. Neighborhoods where 90 percent of teenagers own cell phones and computers.

How about the complete religious, social and political freedoms we enjoy that are the envy of everyone in the world?

Maybe that is what has 67 percent of you folks unhappy.

Fact is, we are the largest group of ungrateful, spoiled brats the world has ever seen. No wonder the world loves the U.S. , yet has a great disdain for its citizens. They see us for what we are. The most blessed people in the world who do nothing but complain about what we don't have , and what we hate about the country instead of thanking the good Lord we live here.

I know, I know. What about the President who took us into war and has no plan to get us out? The President who has a measly 31 percent approval rating? Is this the same President who guided the nation in the dark days after 9/11? The President that cut taxes to bring an economy out of recession? Could this be the same guy who has been called every name in the book for succeeding in keeping all the spoiled ungrateful brats safe from terrorist attacks?

The Commander-In Chief of an all-volunteer army that is out there defending you and me? Did you hear how bad the President is on the news or talk show? Did this news affect you so much, make you so unhappy you couldn't take a look around for yourself and see all the good things and be glad?

Think about it...are you upset at the President because he actually caused you personal pain OR is it because the 'Media' told you he was failing to kiss your sorry ungrateful behind every day.

Make no mistake about it. The troops in Iraq and Afghanistan have volunteered to serve, and in many cases may have died for your freedom. There is currently no draft in this country. They didn't have to go.

They are able to refuse to go and end up with either a ''general'' discharge, an ''other than honorable'' discharge or, worst case scenario, a ''dishonorable'' discharge after a few days in the brig.

So why then the flat-out discontentment in the minds of 69 percent of Americans? Say what you want, but I blame it on the media. If it bleeds, it leads; and they specialize in bad news. Everybody will watch a car crash with blood and guts. How many will watch kids selling lemonade at the corner? The media knows this and media outlets are for-profit corporations. They offer what sells , and when criticized, try to defend their actions by 'justifying' them in one way or another. Just ask why they tried to allow a murderer like O.J. Simpson to write a book about 'how he didn't kill his wife, but if he did he would have done it this way'...Insane!

Stop buying the negativism you are fed everyday by the media. Shut off the TV, burn Newsweek, and use the New York Times for the bottom of your bird cage. Then start being grateful for all we have as a country. There is exponentially more good than bad.

We are among the most blessed people on Earth, and should thank God several times a day, or at least be thankful and appreciative.

'With hurricanes, tornado's, fires out of control, mud slides, flooding, severe thunderstorms tearing up the country from one end to another, and with the threat of bird flu and terrorist attacks, 'Are we sure this is a good time to take God out of the Pledge of Allegiance?'

Jay Leno
2008

Builders Revisited: Dangerous Optimism

This morning Centex Corp. CTX(one of the large home builders) reported results for
4th qtr: a loss of $910.5 million (thats almost a Billion), or $7.36 a share(!!!) on the $342.8 million sale of land at the loss of $719.3 million. Revenues for the Qtr plunged to $2.31 billion from $3.64 billion, down 36.5% compared to the 4th Qtr of last year. Closings in the 4th Qtr declined by 33% and average sales price down 15%... Centex profit margin on homes sold sank to 7.7% from 17.7% year earlier...
Is this kind of earnings report a reason to bid this stock up almost 7%???
-Apparently it is! According to Wachovia analyst: "CTX is focusing on an asset-light model, and 4th Qtr results is the step in the right direction." (as per Dow Jones Wire at 10:25am.)
I was trained to believe that loosing money is a bad thing... not anymore! Losing money is GOOD! Making money is BAD! Just look at Exxon being clobbered down 4% after earning almost $11 billion for the qtr.
Despite obviously nasty and further deteriorating market for home builders, (see my April 22, 2008 article Builders: A Sure Thing at SA, home builders stocks are up as much as 60% this year. I do understand that markets anticipates, and that some believe that "its so bad now, it can't get any worth"... well, it can and it will! This morning surge in Jobless Claims by 35,000 by no measure is a good news for housing sector.
In its stock report on another large builder Lenar Corp., (LEN) dated April 26, 2008 S&P analyst Kenneth M. Leon while attempting to put a positive spin on home builders, forced to admit that: "To date, we believe the key factor driving the housing downturn are a decline in buyer's confidence, a weakening of demand for new homes, an oversupply of new and existing homes available for sale, and the inability of many (potential) home buyers to sell their current homes..."
-Need I say more?
In my humble opinion, those who bet on improving housing sector, regretfully will be disappointed. The issue is not only the problems I listed in my previous article, the main problem is in the "Structured Finance" area, or inability of bankers to package mortgage loans into a mortgage bonds and sell them to investors. There are not too many buyers for mortgage bonds now and may not be for a long time. Without "Structured Finance" link, there is no money to lend! The system that provided endless supply of money to the mortgage market is severely damaged and it will take a long time to repair it, if it even can be repaired.
Home builders stocks have rallied on expectations of happy days and now their stocks are extremely overvalued. As for Happy Days, they are nowhere in sight.