How Grateful Are We?

This was emailed to me by someone. Allegedly this piece was created by Jay Leno. I don't know if its true, but it doesn't really matter. I thought it spoke the truth and decided to post it on my blog. Here it is, enjoy:

Regardless of our politics, most of us will find something to think about in this powerfully stated perspective by Jay Leno:

'The other day I was reading Newsweek magazine and came across some poll data I found rather hard to believe. It must be true, given the source, right?

The Newsweek poll alleges that 67 percent of Americans are unhappy with the direction the country is headed, and 69 percent of the country is unhappy with the performance of the President. In essence, 2/3's of the citizenry just ain't happy and want a change.

So being the knuckle dragger I am, I started thinking, ''What are we so unhappy about?''
Is it that we have electricity and running water 24 hours a day, 7 days a week?

Is our unhappiness the result of having air conditioning in the summer and heating in the winter?

Could it be that 95.4 percent of these unhappy folks have a job?

Maybe it is the ability to walk into a grocery store at any time, and see more food in moments than Darfur has seen in the last year?

Maybe it is the ability to drive from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean without having to present identification papers as we move through each state?

Or possibly the hundreds of clean and safe motels we would find along the way that can provide temporary shelter?

I guess having thousands of restaurants with varying cuisine from around the world is just not good enough.

Or could it be that when we wreck our car, emergency workers show up and
Provide services to help all, and even send a helicopter to take you to the hospital.

Perhaps you are one of the 70 percent of Americans who own a home. You may be upset with knowing that in the unfortunate case of a fire, a group of trained firefighters will appear in moments and use top notch equipment to extinguish the flames thus saving you, your family and your belongings.

Or if, while at home watching one of your many flat screen TVs, a burglar or prowler intrudes , an officer equipped with a gun and a bullet-proof vest will come to defend you and your family against attack or loss.

This all in the backdrop of a neighborhood free of bombs or militias raping and pillaging the residents. Neighborhoods where 90 percent of teenagers own cell phones and computers.

How about the complete religious, social and political freedoms we enjoy that are the envy of everyone in the world?

Maybe that is what has 67 percent of you folks unhappy.

Fact is, we are the largest group of ungrateful, spoiled brats the world has ever seen. No wonder the world loves the U.S. , yet has a great disdain for its citizens. They see us for what we are. The most blessed people in the world who do nothing but complain about what we don't have , and what we hate about the country instead of thanking the good Lord we live here.

I know, I know. What about the President who took us into war and has no plan to get us out? The President who has a measly 31 percent approval rating? Is this the same President who guided the nation in the dark days after 9/11? The President that cut taxes to bring an economy out of recession? Could this be the same guy who has been called every name in the book for succeeding in keeping all the spoiled ungrateful brats safe from terrorist attacks?

The Commander-In Chief of an all-volunteer army that is out there defending you and me? Did you hear how bad the President is on the news or talk show? Did this news affect you so much, make you so unhappy you couldn't take a look around for yourself and see all the good things and be glad?

Think about it...are you upset at the President because he actually caused you personal pain OR is it because the 'Media' told you he was failing to kiss your sorry ungrateful behind every day.

Make no mistake about it. The troops in Iraq and Afghanistan have volunteered to serve, and in many cases may have died for your freedom. There is currently no draft in this country. They didn't have to go.

They are able to refuse to go and end up with either a ''general'' discharge, an ''other than honorable'' discharge or, worst case scenario, a ''dishonorable'' discharge after a few days in the brig.

So why then the flat-out discontentment in the minds of 69 percent of Americans? Say what you want, but I blame it on the media. If it bleeds, it leads; and they specialize in bad news. Everybody will watch a car crash with blood and guts. How many will watch kids selling lemonade at the corner? The media knows this and media outlets are for-profit corporations. They offer what sells , and when criticized, try to defend their actions by 'justifying' them in one way or another. Just ask why they tried to allow a murderer like O.J. Simpson to write a book about 'how he didn't kill his wife, but if he did he would have done it this way'...Insane!

Stop buying the negativism you are fed everyday by the media. Shut off the TV, burn Newsweek, and use the New York Times for the bottom of your bird cage. Then start being grateful for all we have as a country. There is exponentially more good than bad.

We are among the most blessed people on Earth, and should thank God several times a day, or at least be thankful and appreciative.

'With hurricanes, tornado's, fires out of control, mud slides, flooding, severe thunderstorms tearing up the country from one end to another, and with the threat of bird flu and terrorist attacks, 'Are we sure this is a good time to take God out of the Pledge of Allegiance?'

Jay Leno
2008

Builders Revisited: Dangerous Optimism

This morning Centex Corp. CTX(one of the large home builders) reported results for
4th qtr: a loss of $910.5 million (thats almost a Billion), or $7.36 a share(!!!) on the $342.8 million sale of land at the loss of $719.3 million. Revenues for the Qtr plunged to $2.31 billion from $3.64 billion, down 36.5% compared to the 4th Qtr of last year. Closings in the 4th Qtr declined by 33% and average sales price down 15%... Centex profit margin on homes sold sank to 7.7% from 17.7% year earlier...
Is this kind of earnings report a reason to bid this stock up almost 7%???
-Apparently it is! According to Wachovia analyst: "CTX is focusing on an asset-light model, and 4th Qtr results is the step in the right direction." (as per Dow Jones Wire at 10:25am.)
I was trained to believe that loosing money is a bad thing... not anymore! Losing money is GOOD! Making money is BAD! Just look at Exxon being clobbered down 4% after earning almost $11 billion for the qtr.
Despite obviously nasty and further deteriorating market for home builders, (see my April 22, 2008 article Builders: A Sure Thing at SA, home builders stocks are up as much as 60% this year. I do understand that markets anticipates, and that some believe that "its so bad now, it can't get any worth"... well, it can and it will! This morning surge in Jobless Claims by 35,000 by no measure is a good news for housing sector.
In its stock report on another large builder Lenar Corp., (LEN) dated April 26, 2008 S&P analyst Kenneth M. Leon while attempting to put a positive spin on home builders, forced to admit that: "To date, we believe the key factor driving the housing downturn are a decline in buyer's confidence, a weakening of demand for new homes, an oversupply of new and existing homes available for sale, and the inability of many (potential) home buyers to sell their current homes..."
-Need I say more?
In my humble opinion, those who bet on improving housing sector, regretfully will be disappointed. The issue is not only the problems I listed in my previous article, the main problem is in the "Structured Finance" area, or inability of bankers to package mortgage loans into a mortgage bonds and sell them to investors. There are not too many buyers for mortgage bonds now and may not be for a long time. Without "Structured Finance" link, there is no money to lend! The system that provided endless supply of money to the mortgage market is severely damaged and it will take a long time to repair it, if it even can be repaired.
Home builders stocks have rallied on expectations of happy days and now their stocks are extremely overvalued. As for Happy Days, they are nowhere in sight.

Dear Hillary...

Please don't windfall tax oil companies just "because they can afford it". At some point, somebody should have informed you that the final payer is always has been and always will be a consumer, as any costs are past down, taxes included. There is no one else! So when you, in the heat of your battle, on the national television, giving in to a burning desire to move back into that nice white building on Pennsylvania Avenue bate your constituents by promising to ease their gas burden by taxing big, bad oil companies - what I hear is: vote for meee... and you will pay even more for gas than you're paying now...
You see Madam Senator, a Robinhood philosophy of expropriating from "those that can afford it" just because... has failed! Not only it has failed, it's dying all over the world. If you don't believe me, ask Russians, or Chinese, or Cubans, or any other people that survived havens of communism...
But the strategy and tactics used by Bolsheviks to attract loyalty of the common people are still alive and being practiced by contenders like you with great consistency. And why not? As long as politicians like you will say and promise anything, anything at all to get elected and as long as people remain as gullible as they are these tactics will work!
If you however, are sincere in bringing the fossil fuel costs down permanently consider sponsoring new, competing technologies and allow to search for oil within territorial US, as suggested by the President.
As for the oil companies - they are in business to make money for their shareholders, they operate in the competitive environment and like all other businesses they earn their profits. It is still legal!

Tankers - A Real Bargain?

Beam me up Scotti! Wouldn't it be nice to beam up a 100 million metric tons of coal, steel, wheat, copper or any other commodity from here to say China, or India, or Brazil? Well, technology is not there yet! The way this stuff is transported from producers to consumers overseas is mainly by huge ocean going vessels, marine tankers and they are busy these days carrying over huge amounts of every commodity to countries where demand is outstripping supply as every day goes by. Only a decade ago Chinese were riding bicycles and wearing grey uniforms, happy to have a bowl of rice once a day. That time is gone forever! The communists have turned capitalists and they drive cars, build skyscrapers, eat better and want to enjoy every convenience that we have taken for granted for all of our lives. The same insatiable growth is propelling economies of Russia and its former satellites, as well as India, Brazil, Mexico and other.
They buy from us and other developed countries all the basic materials required to build a good life. Unfortunately the human kind did not yet developed a better way to deliver billions of tons of commodities across the oceans and tankers are the "only game in town"!
The tanker stocks that enjoyed a parabolic rise in 2006 and 2007 have sold off sharply with the rest of the market last November, but their profits are keep climbing higher and higher. Most of the stocks in that group are selling at single digit trailing and next year PE, while their "E" are growing at a double and triple digit rate. The Baltic Dry Bulk Index (BDI) that tracks daily charter rates for paid by commodities suppliers to ship their goods has climbed from the bottom reading of 5615 on January of this year to 8550 as of today indicating that daily charter rates are rising again fueled by strong demand.
Tankers stocks bounced up in the last couple of weeks from the bottom as well, but they are still cheap! ...and most of them pay very generous dividends, some yielding over 10%.
The trend in shipping business will last as long as the BRIC countries will experience growth, which is for decades. This trend is there to stay and its irreversible! On the hand... there is no other hand, its supply and demand and demand is getting stronger!
For appreciation consider following stocks:
- TBS International LTD. TBSI$43.19 dividend yield 0%
- Aegean Marine Petroleum Network ANW$38.41 dividend yield 0.10%
- Dryships Inc. DRYS$84.54 dividend yield 0.95%
- Oveseas Shipholding Group OSG$75.36 dividend yield 1.66%
- Exel Maritime Carriers Ltd. EXM$43.85 dividend yield 1.83%
- Teekay Corp. TK$46.31 dividend yield 2.37%
- Navious Maritime Holdings Inc., NM$11.54 dividend yield 3.11%

For appreciation and high dividends consider following stocks:
- Double Hull Tankers DHT$11.78 dividend yield 12.64%
- Arlington Tankers Ltd. ATB$22.90 dividend yield 10.13%
- Paragon Shipping Inc. PRGM$17.39 dividend yield 10.06%
- Knightsbridge Tankers VLCCF$ dividend yield 8.51%
- Navious Maritime Partners LP., NMM$16.72 dividend yield 8.44%
- Euroseas Ltd., ESEA$ 15.40 dividend yield 7.01%

There are multitude of stocks in the market that looks like a bargain, but some of them are. The real bargain is when a stock price is low relative to the future growth of the business. If business is fueled by irreversible global forces - that makes it a great investment! Buy tankers, I did!

Builders: A Sure Thing!

It doesn't happen often that the market conditions present a "sure" money maker - home builders now are as sure short as it can ever be!
Here is 7 reasons why:

1. Unsold inventory of homes is rising with no signs of improvement, exacerbated by stricter lending criteria by mortgage lenders and rising foreclosures that competes with new construction for a few available qualified buyers.

2. Weak economy, rising unemployment, spent out consumers squeezed hard by high gas prices, higher down payment requirements and still too high property prices place many potential buyers out of the real estate market.

3. Home sales continue to deteriorate. As reported this morning (4/22/08) by National Association of Realtors home resales fell 2% in February and inventory of unsold homes have risen 1% representing a 9.9 month supply at the pace of sales in March.

4. Many of the builders have loans that will mature and due for refinancing over the next two years and some of them may not be able to "roll" them.

5. On the top of all that home builders are finding them-self between the rock and hard place of inflation. Rising cost of labor and building materials against collapsing revenues spells trouble for profit margins! What profit margins?

6. Despite all of the above Home Builders stocks have risen year to date as much as 60% from the bottom in January making their valuations based on the current and next year estimates astronomically expensive...

7. The insiders are actively selling their stocks at fraction of the value of 2006 and 2007 taking advantage of the bounce from the low। Who knows the state of the business better than insiders? Insiders know that the glut of unsold homes and tighter credit standards are not helping buyers and hurting sellers।

- When high stock price combined with weak and further deteriorating fundamentals - the stock price will follow the fundamentals!

The easiest way to take advantage of this rare situation, is to short US Home Construction iShares "ITB$20.70" or short individual builders such as Ryland Group "RYL$34.00", Pulte Homes "PHM$14.06" and others.

In my long and hard earned experience, real estate cycles NEVER turn quickly. They are always long, they last for decades and this is one of the worst kind.
- I am shorting builders! You place your bets!

Greed and Stupidity

Who is at the root of the "Sub-Prime" mortgage fiasco? The way I see it, there are only two entities to share direct blame: greedy mortgage brokers and stupid home buyers!
- The first party - mortgage brokers, (fortunately not all of them), driven by greed and real estate bubble, would not be stoped by such a "minor formality" as income verification and other qualifying criteria of the potential home buyers, they were happy to "manufacture" mortgage applications to make anyone alive (one and only non-negotiable condition), look as good as necessary to get the mortgage money. There was no thoughts about the consequences to them, the reputation of the industry or the the realistic ability of the home buyer to carry the mortgage payments.
-The second party - home buyers, blinded by the rush to grab a property regardless of the price, without any comprehension of the structure of the Adjustable Rate Mortgages, focusing only on their ability to make monthly payments at the quoted low teaser rate, grateful to the crooked mortgage "consultants" for their "ingenious" ability to get them through the settlement and into their new acquisition.
- While the first party should be prosecuted to the full extend for the fraud and violations of many state and federal laws, how do the former owners of the foreclosed homes can be protected and can they be protected from financial ruins?
- I say: you can not protect individuals from their own stupidity! Regardless of how well meaning the politicians may be, regardless of how many laws they enact to protect the "consumer" there are the infinite ways for those that are careless, stupid or greedy to harm themselves in some way or another. Hopefully, some of those unfortunate that lost their home will learn and make better in the future. May be some of them will make a modest investment in the hand held calculator and learn to read the small ( and not so small) print.
- While my hart goes out to each and everyone of them, my common sense tells me that there is no use to legislate new laws, because morality, honesty, integrity, common sense and compassion can not be legislated!